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Forecast. and North-East Asian economies, such as China and Hong Kong, China, inflationary pressures from the removal of oil subsidies and tightening labour and land markets, would be partly offset by tightening monetary policy and exchange rate appreciation. This is particularly true for Hong Kong, China. The current account surplus for emerging Asian economies is expected to deteriorate slightly in 2007, though it will remain high. 1 per cent in 2006. With the expected rebound in domestic investment and the continuing high level of oil prices, the current account surplus is expected to decline in all Asian economies.

6 per cent against the dollar. Because the events of 19 September were seen as limited to Thailand and as being of a political rather than economic nature, contagion to other regional markets was limited. 7 per cent in 2007. This “base-case” prediction is built on the assumption that the new interim Government is likely to reduce uncertainty in government spending, especially in public investment expenditure, with government spending expected to increase and play a key role in boosting GDP growth.

With the expected rebound in domestic investment and the continuing high level of oil prices, the current account surplus is expected to decline in all Asian economies. In particular, a moderate decline in the current account surplus is expected in China due to policy measures supporting consumption, reduction in oil subsidies, and greater exchange rate flexibility. The above forecast on the economic performance of the Asia-Pacific region is rather robust, but several downside risks still remain.

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Additif 80 by CTICM


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